Live Updates: German Recession Looms as Business Confidence Hits 2-Year Low

Let the games begin. No, not the acrimonious tussle between the last two candidates in the Conservative Party leadership election – although you can watch that on the BBC on Monday. This week marks the start of the Commonwealth Games in the UK’s second largest city, Birmingham.

The opening day of the international sporting festival will be marked by that other big event of the British summer of 2022: industrial action. The RMT will stage the latest in its series of walkouts over pay levels for rail industry workers on Wednesday, the same day that Aslef – representing train drivers – counts the votes in his strike ballot on members’ pay . Unrest continues to spread, with telecommunications engineers and port workers striking or voting for industrial action over wages.

Across the Channel, energy ministers from EU member states will meet this week in Brussels to decide on measures to end Europe’s dependence on Russian fuel supplies. The outlook is not good, according to Valentina Pop, editor of the Europe Express newsletter. On Sunday, President Vladimir Putin will get his chance to shine as he celebrates Naval Fleet Day in port cities across Russia.

If all this is too depressing, then perhaps the prospect of significant new compensation for British postmasters who have suffered due to the faulty Horizon computer system is worth celebrating. Former Supreme Court Justice Lord John Dyson is set to make an announcement on the final settlement for victims of the computer scandal following the government’s announcement of an interim payment totaling £19.5million in June.

The pick of the election news this week is Tunisia’s vote on a new constitution. Politicians and analysts say there is no doubt the charter, drafted by populist leader Kais Saied, will pass even though they expect low turnout.

Economic data

All eyes will be on Washington on Wednesday for the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate announcement. We expect a tightening of the monetary policy machinery with an increase of 75 basis points. At least one senior Fed governor would like the Federal Open Market Committee to go even further.

Then we’ll get the growth data – did anyone mention the recession – with the quarterly GDP numbers for the US, Canada, France, Germany and the mass of countries in the eurozone.

Companies

We’ve hit the peak of revenue season with an A-Z (or at least X) of company names — ironic given that Tuesday’s list includes Alphabet.

The negative impact of the strong dollar was felt in a series of earnings announcements in the United States this quarter. This is expected to come back as a problem with a series of earnings announcements from Silicon Valley tech companies, which have some of the highest percentages of revenue coming from overseas.

Microsoft, which reported Tuesday, has already cut its dollar-based forecast, and Morgan Stanley issued a note last week saying the dollar could lead to a disappointing forecast from Apple when it releases its numbers on Thursday.

Attention will also shift to the consumer goods industry with Unilever, Danone, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser, Nestlé and Mondelēz all announcing this week. The analysts’ concern is that shoppers are tightening their belts, choosing cheap supermarket products over multinational brands. The decision by Unilever and others to raise prices has not helped the situation.

Read the full schedule for the week ahead here.

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