In the second quarter, Tesla’s electric vehicle market share in Europe was cut in half (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla’s European sales were halved in the second quarter despite opening its first European factory in March

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A particular aspect of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) quarterly reports indicate that it is one of the few automakers not to provide any meaningful regional breakdown of its automotive unit sales. This would mean, at a minimum, breaking down into these geographies:

  • Europe

  • North America

  • Asia / China

However, just because Tesla doesn’t provide this data in its quarterly reports doesn’t mean it’s not available elsewhere – with a bit of a lag. About a month later, all the European data was collected in full.

Accordingly, we have just received the final and complete figures for the whole of Europe for the month of June – and therefore also for the full second quarter. Why is this particularly relevant now, you might ask?

Here’s why:

Elon Musk breaks out the dance moves as he opens a new Tesla factory in Germany

Yes, Tesla opened its factory in Germany on March 22, tasked with significantly boosting Tesla’s second-quarter sales in Europe after its EV market share dropped dramatically – by two-thirds! – from 2019 to 2021:

Europe

Total EV

You’re here

% to share

2019

558015

110132

20%

2020

1364967

98924

seven%

2021

2270263

169709

seven%

Data source: 13% of new car sales in Europe electric (21% plug-ins)

The opening date for Tesla’s German factory – March 22 – meant it was almost perfectly tailor-made to coincide with Tesla having a monster second-quarter sales figure in Europe. After all, this is Tesla’s first factory in Europe, and it would no longer be so dependent on cars exported from California, where Tesla manufactures both the Model 3 and the Model Y and has the ability to export to Europe. ‘Europe. That factory launch on March 22 was the obvious rationale for Tesla’s moon sales in Europe during the June quarter.

Tesla’s European market share in electric vehicles fell from 11% to 5% in the second quarter

Instead of Tesla’s European EV market share growing significantly in the second quarter following the opening of the brand new factory near Berlin on March 22 (see link above), it’s the reverse happened:

Europe

Total EV

You’re here

% to share

2022 Q1

566487

59502

11%

2022 Q2

562431

26154

5%

Data source: 13% of new car sales in Europe electric (21% plug-ins)

Whoops ! Tesla’s market share fell by (just over) half in the second quarter. Not what you’d expect, given that Tesla’s first European factory opened on March 22.

What about BEV only sales?

A common objection when discussing Tesla’s electric vehicle market share is the very definition of the electric vehicle itself. The definition of EV is BEV (battery electric vehicle) + PHEV (plug-in hybrid) = EV. Obviously, Tesla’s market share in BEV is higher than in EV because Tesla does not manufacture PHEV, unlike some of its competitors.

Yet the difference in definition between EV and BEV matters more in terms of Tesla’s absolute level of market share than direction. If the sales figures for PHEV and BEV also move in the same direction, the changes in market share for Tesla will also be the same, regardless of the definition of EV chosen. Only the absolute level would be different whether or not PHEV is included.

However, sales of PHEV and BEV are not developing in the same way. They may have evolved relatively similarly for most of the last few years, but in order to satisfy those who suspect that even the slightest change in the relative sales trajectory between these two EV versions has had a material impact on the conclusion statistical, I present these BEV – only the facts of sale:

Europe

VEB

You’re here

% to share

2022 Q1

332985

59502

18%

2022 Q2

324112

26154

8%

Data source: 13% of new car sales in Europe electric (21% plug-ins)

See, I told you: the absolute numbers are higher, but the statistical meaning is almost the same. Tesla’s European market share for BEVs alone fell by (just over) half between the first quarter of 2022 and the second quarter. In other words, the drastic drop in Tesla’s market share was about the same whether the BEV-only definition was chosen or the EV definition.

The numbers are even worse than they appear at first glance

Tesla’s second-quarter market share slump in Europe is the kind of faceplant you’d expect if you were told that Tesla “shut down” its only European factory on March 22 – and not open on March 22. It was the quarter where Tesla’s European sales were supposed to go over the moon the following quarter, not be cut in half.

Tesla’s European sales also fell by half in absolute numbers

An objection to this analysis would be this potential mitigating circumstance: “It is normal for the market share to fall by more than 50% if the total market increases by more than 100%, because what is really important is that the absolute sales figures are increasing.” The problem with that is that it didn’t happen in Q2 either.

Unit sales for Tesla in Europe fell 56% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. In absolute numbers, European unit sales increased from 59,502 units in the first quarter to 26,154 in the second quarter. In other words, while the European EV market fell “just” 8%, Tesla’s sales fell 56%. That is why its market share has been halved.

Tesla’s electric vehicle market share falls into oblivion in Europe

With Tesla’s EV market share now below 5% in Europe and falling rapidly, do investors still seriously believe that Tesla is the only company building new EV manufacturing capacity in Europe in 2022 and 2023? Tesla is getting outsized press for the opening of its only EV plant (March 22, 2022), but other automakers tend to launch new EV production lines at new and old plants with almost no same fanfare.

That’s why investors might be surprised to see this data. They may be even more surprised in the coming quarters, although the Tesla factory in Berlin was launched just before the start of the last quarter.

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