Fantasy Football ADP: Market Update (Week of August 1)

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Each week in this space, we’ll take a look at how fantasy football’s ADP has changed across real-money drafts over the past week. The goal is to learn how writers playing for prize money respond to news, injuries and more to build their teams. Finally, at the bottom of the article, we will draw the conclusions that we think are important to understand from these movements.

To listen to a breakdown of this information in a short audio format, check out the Establish The Run podcast (episode posted Monday afternoon).

We cover ADPs for Underdog Fantasy, FFPC and NFFC. In the future, we will add the “local league” ADP to this report.

  • Michael Thomas saw his ADP increase by almost a full turn on Underdog, which is a pretty huge move. News about his health has been good, but we think the market is ignoring other risk factors – including an aging WR who missed more than a full season to return to a serious QB downgrade and increased competition in WR. The target hog upside is attractive, so we don’t have WR34 as a big overpayment, but we prefer Thomas a few WR spots later.
  • With the signature of Julio Jones and positive news around the health of chris godvin, there has been a massive change in the ADP for Tampa Bay pass catchers. Jones saw his ADP increase over four rounds on Underdog and FFPC. His current ADP Underdog of WR64 is exactly where we ranked him, but we suspect he’s continuing to rise to a point where he’s overpaid. Meanwhile, Russell Gage sees his ADP drop. He hasn’t gone down enough in our eyes yet, but if/when Jones’ ADP surpasses Gage’s, Gage could actually become a low price guy. We still prefer it over Jones, given our expectations for regular season use. Godwin remains one of our favorite fifth- and sixth-round targets.
  • The Buffalo Bills camp hype is that Isaiah McKenzie is a serious challenger for the starting slot role, resulting in a massive increase in ADP for him and a subsequent drop in ADP for Jamison Crowder. We’ve changed our expectations for Buffalo’s offense and fear the duo will cannibalize each other all season. Although both play the WR slot, their usage is likely to be different and that likely means a time split, regardless of the starter. Add some potential new staff groups for Buffalo with the addition of OJ Howard and james cook as wide receivers, and we’re cooling off on the McKenzie/Crowder upside right now.
  • A trio of rookies with a lot of hype see their ADP increase everywhere – Wan’ Dale Robinson, George Pickensand Romeo Doubs. Even with the increase in ADP, we are generally ahead of the market on these three WRs. It’s hard to find big wins at WR late in the draft, but that outcome is more plausible with talented rookies seizing opportunities.

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