Dow Jones, US Dollar, Gold, RBNZ, FOMC Minutes, AUD/USD, NZD/USD

Risky assets surged last week after a weaker than expected US consumer price index (CPI) dampened inflation and growth concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed the week with a gain of 2.92%. The small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 4.93%, while the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) rose 2.71%. European stocks lagged their US counterparts but still closed higher. Asian stock indices were mixed, although Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit its highest level since January, up 2.62%.

The US dollar fell against most of its peers as rate traders tempered expectations for the FOMC’s rate decision in September. Market prices via swaps and fed funds futures show that a 50 basis point rally is the most likely outcome. Members of the Federal Reserve, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, tried to cool the post-CPI fervor. US retail sales and FOMC minutes are due this week. Gold prices rose on the prospect of a less hawkish Fed and a weaker dollar.

Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, but benchmarks remained negative for the month. Natural gas prices in Europe and the United States hit near-record highs as drought conditions across Europe threatened coal supply shipments and reducedD hydroelectric capacity. The International Energy Agency raised its oil demand forecast for 2022 by 380,000 barrels per day (bopd), while OPEC cut its forecast by 260,000 bpd.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise its key rate by 50 basis points this week. NZD/USD gained nearly 3.5%, hitting its highest level since early June. The UK unemployment rate for June is due, along with the ZEW Eurozone economic sentiment survey. Canadian inflation data for July is expected to cool to a pace of 7.6% year-over-year, from 8.1% in June. And the July Australian jobs report is seen crossing the wires at +25k.

Fundamental forecasts:

Gold prices could fall as the Fed fights pivot bets and short hedging slows

Gold prices surged after economic data fueled Fed pivot bets. XAU’s rally, fueled in part by short hedging, may end soon, especially if the Fed sends a stronger response to ardent investors.

Euro Weekly Forecast: EUR/USD Rallies, Gas and Drought Still Concerns

The fundamental forecast for the Euro next week is neutral as the US CPI rebound fades.

Australian Dollar Outlook Driven by US Dollar

The Australian dollar ended higher last week after US inflation data excited markets and sent the US dollar lower, pushing AUD/USD higher. Will the US dollar dominate the AUD/USD?

British Pound Forecast GBP – UK Inflation Could Hit Double Digits

The pound is set to take a beating next week with the latest data on jobs, wages, retail sales and inflation set to be released

US dollar vulnerable to less hawkish FOMC minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes could drag on on the US dollar if the central bank shows more willingness to implement more modest rate hikes.

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Rising RBNZ May Do Little For NZD

NZD/USD rose on the back of a weaker US Dollar post CPI. Further global demand destruction and proximity to China look likely to contain the NZD

Technical forecasts:

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Predictions for the week ahead

Stocks continue to hold bid, but that may soon change; large levels could be reached in the days to come.

US Dollar Technical Forecast: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

The US Dollar’s high was reached nearly a month ago, and a declining channel has been building since then, constituting a bullish flag formation. Will the Fed’s word be able to bring back the uptrend?

Gold price technical forecast: gold, silver at the time of the resistance decision

Gold jumped over 7.5% from yearly lows with a four-week rally now approaching major trend resistance. The levels that question on the weekly technical chart.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.