Dow Jones, US Dollar, Gold, Bitcoin, Oil, Inflation, China, Jackson Hole, Fed

US stock indices fell last week, with losses accelerating over the weekend as the US dollar rose. Bets on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike firmed a bit after hawkish rhetoric from FOMC voters James Bullard and Esther George. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.86% on Friday, paring earlier gains and ending the week in negative territory. The high-beta Nasdaq-100 (NDX) index snapped its four-week winning streak, closing down 2.38%.

Traders will receive an inflation update for July via the US PCE price index. Analysts expect a 4.7% annual increase in core prices, the Fed’s preferred measure. That would be down from 4.8% in June. A failure could help revive bets on the Fed’s pivot, but rate traders are eager to hear what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Aug. 26. Mr Powell is due to speak at 2:00 p.m. GMT on Friday.

Stock traders look set to abandon the US stock market rally. According to the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, the short position among S&P 500 speculators increased by 44,000 as of August 16. . Chinese stocks have fallen amid a scorching heat wave that is forcing factories to close. Chinese tech giant Tencent reported its first quarterly revenue decline, which weighed on Chinese tech stocks. Hong Kong has seen a rise in Covid cases, prompting authorities to reopen an isolation site.

The China-sensitive Australian dollar fell more than 3% against the US dollar. Iron ore prices in China fell nearly 4%, adding a headwind to the Australian dollar. A disappointing Australian jobs report boosted selling, although rates markets still saw a 50 basis point increase at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting in September. Crude oil prices ended lower last week as tightening Fed bets and China’s economic woes outweighed a sharp drop in U.S. oil inventories.

European natural gas prices stood at a record high. Europe’s dry conditions and heat reduced hydroelectric capacity. On Friday, Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom said it would suspend its Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany later this month. Europe has made progress in filling its gas storage ahead of winter, but the upcoming pipeline shutdown poses another question mark over its energy situation. According to AGSI data, EU gas storage is almost 76% full.

The euro and the pound fell more than 2% against the dollar. Europe and the UK are facing high probabilities of recession, in part due to soaring energy prices across Europe. Elsewhere, Bitcoin prices fell more than 10% as risk aversion accelerated. Gold traders sold the precious metal against hawkish Fed bets. Aside from Jackson Hole and US inflation data, the economic events record is sparse, leaving dominant risk trends at the helm.

PERFORMANCE IN US DOLLARS VS. CURRENCIES AND GOLD

Fundamental forecasts:

S&P 500, FTSE 100 Week Ahead: Focus on the Jackson Hole Symposium

The S&P 500 posts its first weekly decline in a month. The FTSE 100 defying gravity

Euro Forecast – EUR/USD Plunges Into Pair As US Dollar Bulls Go Wild

The Euro, along with a host of other major currencies, looks pretty helpless against a creeping US Dollar with a pair – EUR/USD 1,000 – unlikely to hold the latest selloff.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullion Will Find Relief As US Inflation Slows

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index update may curb gold price weakness as the report is expected to show slowing inflation.

British Pound (GBP) Weekly Forecast: Soaring Inflation Rekindles Stagflation Fears

The bearish momentum for the pound is underpinned by the impression of scorching inflation and rate hike expectations.

Canadian Dollar Weekly Forecast: USD/CAD Strengthens Ahead of Key US Economic Data

USD/CAD will be subject to USD-specific factors next week as the Canadian Dollar remains exposed to downside risk.

Bitcoin Ethereum Outlook: BTC/USD, ETH/USD weighed down by the Fed

Risky assets fell this week as the strength of the dollar rattled markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum give up August gains. US data and the Jackson hole could drive prices up in either direction.

Technical forecasts:

US Dollar Technical Forecast for the Week Ahead: Dollar Hits Resistance

The US Dollar jumped more than 2.5% from monthly lows with a breakout of the August range looking for a run to the highs. Key levels on the DXY weekly technical chart.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Predictions for the week ahead

US stocks finally found resistance this week, with the S&P 500 hitting below the 200-day moving average. Will this resistance lead to a turning point?

Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Forecast: Abundant Ranges

USD/JPY has staged an impressive rally from the CPI dollar selloff and now has the yearly high in sight. AUD/JPY consolidates, presenting range trading opportunities

Gold Price and Silver Forecast – XAU/USD, XAG/USD don’t look too good

The declines in Gold and Silver need to hold fast otherwise the downward trend from the highs should continue in the coming days/weeks towards new cycle lows.

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