Bitcoin’s 2022 Bear Market Shattered the Community’s Most Popular Price Patterns

The 2022 bear market was brutal as over $2 trillion in value was wiped out of the crypto-economy. In addition to the lost record values, the crypto winter managed to break a number of popular Bitcoin price patterns like the rainbow price chart and the infamous Plan B stock-flow pattern. On May 11, 2022, the well-known power law corridor pattern or log growth curve chart also broke, and it deviated below the lower band for about 86 days.

A Deviation from the Norm: The 2022 Bitcoin Bear Market Shatters Some of the Most Popular Price Patterns

For many years now, crypto traders have been using tools, charts, and models to predict the future value of bitcoin (BTC) and other popular digital assets. Bitcoin.com News has written about the Plan B stock-to-flow (S2F) price pattern several times and in 2021 the S2F pattern was quite accurate until the end of November.

Additionally, many bitcoiners rely on other price charts and patterns like the golden ratio multiplier, Fibonacci sequence, rainbow pattern, and logarithmic growth charts. During the last quarter of 2021, bitcoin traders expected BTC to reach $100,000 per coin by the end of the year.

Rainbows, Log Charts and S2F: Bitcoin's 2022 bear market broke the community's most popular price patterns
BTC/USD weekly chart via bitcoinwisdom.io on August 5, 2022.

In September 2021, when BTC was trading prices between $45,000 and $50,000, senior news analyst at Blockware Solutions, Will Clemente, tweeted about a new price pattern he called the “ Illiquid Supply Floor”. At that time, Clemente said the model combined Glassnode’s illiquid supply data with Plan B’s S2F model and said it created a bitcoin price floor based on the real-time scarcity of BTC.

Clemente’s predicted floor value was $39,000 and over time the analyst’s Illiquid Supply Floor model broke down. Even after Plan B’s S2F “worst-case scenario” prediction veered off in late November, the pseudonymous analyst said he was confident bitcoin price was still “on track towards $100,000.”

None of these bold predictions came to fruition, and at the start of the crypto bear market, these types of price patterns were openly mocked and denounced by many people in the crypto community. The illiquid supply floor was not strong, S2F broke and people laughed at the popular “Rainbow” price indicator.

The popular Power-Law Corridor model saw an 86-day break from the norm

Additionally, one of the most popular bitcoin price patterns, known as the Power Law Corridor Pattern, or Log Growth Lines chart, has also been broken since May 11, 2022. The chart is preferred because BTC’s price timeline can be seen from a logarithmic. perspective. In fact, a log price chart is one of the most popular in the world of crypto and traditional financial technical analysis.

Bitcoin log growth line charts are hosted on crypto web portals such as lookintobitcoin.com and coinglass.com. The current gap is unusual as the price of BTC only fell below the lower band twice in history before 2022. The first gap was rapid in October 2010 and the second most notable gap occurred on the 11th March 2020.

Rainbows, Log Charts and S2F: Bitcoin's 2022 bear market broke the community's most popular price patterns
Chart of Bitcoin log growth curves on August 5, 2022.

March 11, 2020, otherwise known as “Black Thursday”, was an interesting day for all assets on planet Earth as financial markets shook across the board. At that time, BTC broke below the $4,000 range and the move fell below the weak development line on the log growth curve chart.

This specific event didn’t last very long as global markets rebounded from the initial Covid-19 scare, and a bull market took place almost immediately afterwards. The price of Bitcoin soared to the $64,000 area in April 2021, and above this range to $69,000 on November 10, 2021.

Nine months later, the price of bitcoin (BTC) is down 66% below the all-time high of $69,000, and the popular and often reliable logarithmic growth curve pattern has been broken for 86 straight days. While BTC experienced the first rally in the bear market, the price still has some way to go to get back to the lower band of the power law corridor.

For the price to do this now, the price must be just above the $35,000 range. Bitcoin price has never broken through the low line for so long, and this is unusual when looking at BTC’s 13-year price cycles. The breakout shows that markets often follow specific laws, patterns, and mathematical patterns, but these types of technical methods don’t always ring true.

Currently, the latest bear market rally and other factors indicate that it is entirely possible that the bottom will be reached for this specific crypto winter, but as charts and signals like these have broken in the past , this means that no one can really guarantee that the bottom of the crypto market is in.

Keywords in this story

Analysts, Bear Market, Bitcoin, Bitcoin (BTC), Black Thursday, Broken Patterns, BTC, BTC Real-Time Scarcity, Charts, Illiquid Supply Floor, Logarithmic Growth Curves, Plan B, Plan B S2F, In-Law Corridor Model of power, price indicator, price signals, pseudonymous analyst, pseudonymous analyst, Rainbow price indicator, S2F, stock-to-flow, TA, Technical analysis, Will Clemente

What do you think of all the bitcoin price patterns that have broken in the past? Let us know your thoughts on this in the comments section below.

Jamie Redman

Jamie Redman is the News Manager at Bitcoin.com News and a fintech journalist living in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He is passionate about Bitcoin, open-source code, and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written over 5,700 articles for Bitcoin.com News about disruptive protocols emerging today.




Image credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, lookintobitcoin.com, Twitter, bitcoinwisdom.io,

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. This is not a direct offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any product, service or company. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.